BY: SENATOR JOHN JASINSKI

Minnesota’s budget office just released its annual November economic forecast. If you have seen headlines about it, there is a decent chance they mentioned a budget surplus, conveying an image that Minnesota is in good shape. But if you dig a little deeper, there are a lot of warnings signs.

First, the surplus is built on the backs of Minnesotans paying more in income taxes than expected. And worse, the forecast shows that the state is headed toward a huge $5 billion budget deficit in the upcoming budget cycle.

Even if legislators show a remarkable level of restraint and do not spend a dime of the current surplus, the state will still end up nearly $3 billion short next cycle. If any of the current surplus is spent, the deficit will be larger.

Ask yourselves: Are the Democrats in the legislature and Gov. Walz known for their restraint?

Remember, this is a self-made situation. Two years ago, Democrats and Gov. Walz controlled every lever of state government. They inherited an $18 billion surplus. They spent every dime. They raised taxes by another $10 billion. They increased spending by an unsustainable 40%. And now we are facing the consequences of their recklessness.

The forecast also makes clear that Minnesota is relying heavily on income-tax collections to hold the budget together. Tax collections came in higher than projected because Minnesotans earned more and paid more of their checks to the state. But it’s not going to last long. Job growth and wage gains are both slowing, and the forecast expects weaker growth ahead. So at these rates, expect the gap between revenue and spending to grow even wider.

You may also have noticed your property tax bill increased significantly. That’s because the state shifted hundreds of millions of dollars in costs onto county governments, forcing them to cut services or increase property taxes to make up the difference. It’s a lose-lose situation for local governments, created because of choices made by Gov. Walz and Democrats in the legislature.

At the same time, spending has climbed quickly. Health and Human Services spending alone grew by more than a billion dollars compared to earlier estimates. As you are certainly aware, Minnesota’s human services programs have been the subject of a number of federal investigations, with federal prosecutors uncovering billions in fraud so far. Yet the Walz administration has allowed those programs to expand for years. Tax dollars continue to be stolen by fraudsters and you are footing the bill.

All of this is happening at a time when families are feeling stressed about their own financial situations. Minnesota has a high cost of living. Taxes, childcare and housing costs, groceries, energy, insurance, and much more are stretching household budgets. I have conversations with folks around the district about this every day. Believe me, it does not escape people that government spending continues to grow, that fraud is running rampant, and that their own financial pictures are less stable.

We cannot keep asking taxpayers to give us more and more of their money to cover ongoing runaway spending while the Walz administration refuses to stop out-of-control fraud.

When the legislature returns next session, we have to finally start putting working Minnesotans first when making our decisions. The forecast is just a warning; it tells us where we are heading but we still have an opportunity to change course. The sooner that happens, the better off Minnesotans will be.